CHANS-Net Events at 2010 AAG Meeting
Wednesday, April 14 |
Thursday, April 15 |
Friday, April 16 |
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8:00am – 9:40am
Washington Room 1, Marriott |
Session # 2151 |
8:00am – 9:40am
Washington Room 1, Marriott |
Session # 3151 |
10:00am – 11:40am
Washington Room 2, Marriott
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Session # 1252 |
10:00am – 11:40am
Washington Room 1, Marriott |
Session # 2251 |
10:00am – 11:40am
Washington Room 1, Marriott |
Session # 3251 |
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12:40pm – 2:20pm
Washington Room 2, Marriott |
Session # 1452 |
2:00 pm - 5:00 pm |
NSF Event |
12:40pm – 2:20pm
Lincoln Room 5, Marriott
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Session # 3449 |
2:40pm – 4:20pm
Washington Room 2, Marriott |
Session # 1552 |
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2:20 pm - 5:00 pm
Lincoln Room 5, Marriott
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CHANS: Workshop
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4:40pm – 6:30pm
Washington Room 2, Marriott |
Session # 1652 |
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| 6:30 pm |
Dinner |
6:30pm – 10:00pm |
Banquet |
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1252 (Paper Session) Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Time: 10:00 - 11:40 am -
Washington Room 2, Marriott
Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Agricultural landscapes as coupled human-natural systems: Are there commonalities in coupling mechanisms?
ORGANIZER(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
CHAIR(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
10:00 am - Steve Vanek Title: Smallholder farming in northern Potosi, Bolivia: challenges to local adaptive coupling in an Andean setting
10:20 am - Guillermo Podesta Title: Recent changes in agricultural systems of the Argentine Pampas
10:40 am - Laurie Drinkwater Title: Coupling at multiple scales in agricultural landscapes of the Mississippi River Basin: What are the drivers and consequences?
11:00 am - Ryan Galt Title: Adaptive and maladaptive coupling in Costa Rican vegetable production: explaining multi-scalar linkages between social and biophysical causes and outcomes in intensive agricultural systems
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1452 (Paper Session) Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Time: 12:40 - 2:20pm - Washington Room 2, Marriott
Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Land change analysis integrating maps and local knowledge
ORGANIZER(S):
Robert Gilmore Pontius, Clark University,
William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
CHAIR(S): Nathan F. Sayre, University of California, Berkeley
12:40 pm - Robert Gilmore Pontius Title: Methods for cross-site comparison of land change: Maps and Locals (MALS)
1:00 pm - Safaa Z Aldwaik Title: :Identifying Stationarity of Transitions among Land Categories over Time for Cross-site Comparison
1:20 pm - Daniel Runfola Title: Important considerations for methods of land change analysis across sites
1:40 pm - Nathan F. Sayre Title: Cross-site comparison in Long Term Social-Ecological Research: Identifying scales and processes through maps and local knowledge
2:00 pm - Discussant: William J. McConnell
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1552 (Paper Session) Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Time: 2:40 - 4:20
pm - Washington Room 2, Marriott
Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Land-Use/Cover/Scape Dynamics I
ORGANIZER(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
CHAIR(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
2:40 pm - Michael Barton Title: Coupled Models for Coupled Systems: Land-Use and Landscape Dynamics in the Mediterranean
3:00 pm - Colin Polsky Title: Progress in High-Resolution Modeling of Coupled Human-Natural Systems: The Case of Suburban Boston (the PIE LTER site)
3:20 pm - Nicholas Jordan Title: Developing an Eco-Social Dynamic Model for Grazing-based Dairy Production in the United States
3:40 pm - Mitch Aide Title: How has demographic dynamics affected patterns of landuse in Central America?
4:00 pm - Dan Brown Title: Coupling land use and land management processes with vegetation productivity and carbon storage in exurban Southeastern Michigan
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1652 (Paper Session) Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Time: 4:40 - 6:20
pm - Washington Room 2, Marriott
Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Land-Use/Cover/Scape Dynamics II
ORGANIZER(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
CHAIR(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
4:40 pm - Runsheng Yin Title: Assessing the impacts of China’s ecological restoration
5:00 pm - Xiaodong Chen Title: Integrating household characteristics into targeting of conservation investments in payments for ecosystem services
5:20 pm - Anthony Halog Title: Operationalizing Sustainability through Modeling CHANS for Bioenergy Development
5:40 pm - Tricia Knoot Title: Social capital and private forests: the role of personal networks in environmental decision-making
6:00 pm - Discussant:
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2151(Paper Session)Thursday, April 15, 2010
Time: 8:00 - 9:40
am - Washington Room 1, Marriott
Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Urban-Built-Coastal Systems
ORGANIZER(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
CHAIR(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
8:00 am - Lily House-Peters Title: The Challenge of Predicting Future Urban Water Demand: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach
8:20 am - Tim Lant Title: Scenario Exercises as Synthetic Decision-making Environments for Urban Vulnerability to Climate
8:40 am - Daniel Hogan Title: URBAN GROWTH, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION:social and ecological dimensions of climate change on the Coast of São Paulo
9:00 am - Scott Drzyzga Title: Analyzing and visualizing the evolution of journey-to-work flows in the Baltimore metropolitan region.
9:20 am - Dylan McNamara / Brad Murray Title: Coastline change and coastal economies coupled through beach replenishment
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2251 (Paper Session) Thursday, April 15, 2010
Time: 10:00 - 11:40 am - Washington Room 1, Marriott
Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Indigenous/Subsistence & Methods
ORGANIZER(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
CHAIR(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
10:00 am - Dan Kramer Title: Spatial and temporal dimensions of socioeconomic and environmental change along Nicaragua’s Caribbean Coast
10:20 am - Oskar Burger Title: A modeling family tree: the abundance and distribution of modeling approaches in the CHANS community
10:40 am - Jeffrey Luzar Title: Feedbacks in a Tropical Coupled Human-Natural System of the Amazon Basin
11:00 am - Matthew Clark Title: Options for mapping recent land-cover change at continental scales using satellite data products
11:20 am - Anne Chin Title: Theoretical bases for social-ecological-geomorphological systems
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3151(Paper Session) Friday, April 16, 2010
Time: 8:00 - 9:40 am - Washington Room 1, Marriott
East Africa Climate-Land Interaction Project in Savanna Ecosystems (EACLIPSE)
ORGANIZER(S): Jennifer Olson, Michigan State University
CHAIR(S): David J. Campbell, Michigan State University
8:00 am - Jeffrey Andresen Title: Dynamic Interactions among People, Livestock, and Savanna Ecosystems under Climate Change: The East Africa Climate-Land Interaction Project in Savanna Ecosystems (EACLIPSE)
8:20 am - Nathan Moore Title: Historical and porjected changes in East African meteorological drought
8:40 am - Jiaguo Qi Title: Assessing Savanna Ecosystem Changes with Remote Sensing in East Africa
9:00 am - Jennifer Olson Title: People and Livestock in the Changing Landscape and Climate of the East African Savannas
9:20 am - Gopalsamy Alagarswamy and Chuan Qin Title: Savanna Vegetation Changes as Influenced by Climate and Human Interventions in East Africa
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3251 (Panel Session) Friday, April 16, 2010
Time: 10:00 -11:40 am - Washington Room 1, Marriott
Coupled Human And Natural Systems in Mountain Environments and Protected Spaces
ORGANIZER(S): David L. McGinnis, Montana State University - Billings
CHAIR(S): David L. McGinnis, Montana State University - Billings
Panelist(s):
David Bennett
George Malanson
Richard Aspinal
David McWethy
Session Description: Mountain environments are special places where National Parks, wilderness areas, nature preserves, isolate unique landscapes cause interesting coupled human-natural system problems. As potential harbingers of environmental change, it is crucial to understand the unique character of these regions. How do human-created boundaries affect the flow of common-pool resources from protected to non-protected areas? What are the connections between human and natural systems near protected areas? Much work has been done in mountain environments, mostly on landscape pattern change as a result of human activity. How do these special places exhibit coupled systems where human activity is also modified as a result of landscape? Are mountain systems different from other coupled human-natural systems? This panel session explores how mountain environments and protected environments interact with human systems and present researchers with unique opportunities to explore geographic concepts and theory.
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3449 (Illustrated Paper Session) Friday, April 16, 2010
Time: 12:40 - 2:20 pm - Lincoln Room 5, Marriott
Illustrated Papers
ORGANIZER(S):
Robert Gilmore Pontius, Clark University,
William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
CHAIR(S): William J. McConnell, Michigan State University
12:40 pm - Wuxuan Xiang Title: The Markov model versus an alternative model of land transitions over time: a case study of land change in the Florida Coastal Ecosystems
12:45pm - Thuy Nguyen Title: Sensitivity of land cover analysis to category aggregation
12:50 pm - Kangping Si Title: Identifying stationarity of land use type transitions between historical trends and future scenarios
12:55pm - Fei Meng Title: Method to show the level of stationarity of a land change process along a gradient: Forest regrowth at Hubbard Brook
1:00 pm - Yue (Eva) Zhang Title: Assessment of Land-cover Transitions Inside Versus Outside Protection Areas in Luquillo, Puerto
1:05 pm - Jennifer Gardner Title: A socioecological lens on nitrogen pollution of waterways: exploring farm scale dynamics in the Mississippi River Basin
1:10 pm - Brett Hill Title: Archaeoclimatology and Ancient Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics
1:15 pm - Ping Liu Title: American National Forest Management and its Implications to China
1:20 pm - Tom Saladyga Title: Climate, fire, and land use interactions in the upper Tuul River watershed, Mongolia
1:25 pm - Christina Tonitto Title: Development of the sustainability concept across natural and social science disciplines
1:30 pm - Emily Yeh Title: Determinants of grassland dynamics in Tibetan highlands: livestock, wildlife and the culture and political economy of pastoralism
1:35 pm - Julie Winkler Title: Climate Change Impact Assessments: Moving from the Local to the Global
Jefferson Fox (not yet listed in AAG program)
Title: Urbanization, Agricultural Intensification, and Habitat Alteration in Vietnam: Modeling Transitional Development and Emerging Infectious Diseases
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Robert Gilmore Pontius
Clark University
Co-Authors: Gary Kofinas
Title: Methods for cross-site comparison of land change: Maps and Locals (MALS)
We have developed a suite of methods to compare categorical land change over time at several different sites, because land change is an important component of coupled human-natural systems. It is challenging to examine land change at just one site for many reasons: 1) land transitions during an initial time interval might not be stationary through a subsequent time interval, 2) the categories in the available maps are not necessarily the most important ones when analyzing change, 3) years of the maps are usually dictated by availability, 4) data can be inconsistent over time, and 5) data can have unknown errors. It is even more challenging to compare land change across numerous sites because various sites can differ in terms of: 1) categories, 2) extent, 3) spatial resolution, 4) temporal resolution, and 5) rates of change. Consequently, we have created general methods to focus on the most important categories in order to examine whether land transitions have been stationary over time. Transition from land category A to B is a combination of two potentially separable processes of loss of A and gain of B, so we analyze each process separately to test whether each transition deviates systematically from seemingly random processes. The methods compare numerous sites, many of which are part of the Long Term Ecological Research network, which is funded by the United States' National Science Foundation. This project is called Maps and Locals (MALS) because it compares land change across sites by synthesizing digital maps with local knowledge.
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Safaa Karaki Aldwaik
Clark University
Co-Authors: Robert Gilmore Pontius
Title: Identifying Stationarity of Transitions among Land Categories over Time for Cross-site Comparison
This study presents research concerning cross-site comparison to characterize the land cover changes over time for several sites of the National Science Foundation's Long Term Ecological Research network. We examine transitions of land categories from three points in time to test whether the transitions during the former time interval are stationary with the transitions during the latter time interval. This method tests for stationarity even when time intervals are different durations or when the amounts of change in time intervals are different. The cross-tabulation matrices serve as the basis in this methodology. Cross-tabulation matrices from three points in time for the Plum Island Ecosystems site are examined. Computer code has been created to perform the same quantitative analysis for all participating sites.
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Daniel Runfola
Clark University
Co-Authors: Merryl Alber, Gill Pontius
Title: Important considerations for methods of land change analysis across sites
This paper identifies the challenges and opportunities for cross-site map comparison of land change over time, with recommendations for future avenues of research and collaboration. We compare two sites, the Plum Island Ecosystems (PIE) and the Georgia Coastal Ecosystems (GCE), both of which are part of the National Science Foundation's Long Term Ecological Research Network. We highlight the ways in which differences and similarities in land cover change can be identified between the PIE and GCE sites by using statistical methods to identify non-random change over time. The analysis raises a variety of issues that must be considered for cross-site comparison because results can be sensitive to these issues. Examples of these issues include: (1) the impact of a large, persistent class such as water, (2) the selection of the study area extent, and (3) the presence of different categories at different sites. We illustrate the points by presenting results from the comparison of PIE and GCE, focusing on the differences in the rate of systematic changes across each landscape.
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Nathan Sayre
University of California-Berkeley
Co-Authors: N/A
Title: Cross-site comparison in Long Term Social-Ecological Research: Identifying scales and processes through maps and local knowledge
The 2007 Decadal Plan for the NSF’s Long Term Ecological Research Network includes a major new component known as Integrative Science for Society and the Environment (ISSE), which calls for “a new kind of transdisciplinary science—one that ranges from local to global in scope, and that blends ecological and social science theories, methods, and interpretations in order to better understand and forecast ecological change in an era when no ecosystem on Earth is free from human influence.” Maps and Locals (MALs) is a project under the ISSE that involves collaborators at 16 LTER sites, representing a wide range of social-ecological systems. Two common methods are being used at all the sites: a GIS-based analysis of land cover/land use change over time, and collection of local ecological knowledge of various kinds. I report on preliminary efforts to 1) identify the processes driving long-term change at the collaborating sites, and 2) specify the relevant spatial and temporal scales at which those processes should be studied. Through cross-site comparison of these results, we hope to clarify the mechanisms linking social and ecological drivers, including feedbacks and historical thresholds of change between regimes or relatively stable states. This should enable development of a common set of theories, methods, and hypotheses for further research into social-ecological systems across multiple scales.
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Jennifer Gardner
Cornnell University
Co-Authors: Laurie E. Drinkwater and Steven A. Wolf
Title: A socioecological lens on nitrogen pollution of waterways: exploring farm scale dynamics in the Mississippi River Basin
In dominant models of farming, grain farms are saturated with nitrogen (N) fertilizer inputs to maximize crop yield, leading to N losses and pollution. This interdisciplinary, mixed methods research is situated within a project exploring socioecological processes at multiple scales in agricultural landscapes in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) to address the problem of N loss and the resulting hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. We addressed farm-scale questions about N biogeochemistry and social processes relevant to changing farming practices by conducting field work on 90 farms in the region of the MRB known to contribute disproportionately to hypoxia. We used an ecological mass balance approach to ask: do management practices that re-couple carbon (C) and N cycling (for instance, reliance on legume N or diversified crop rotations) reduce N surpluses and potential N losses from grain fields? Mass balances constructed by combining data from interviews, plant sampling, and the scientific literature indicated that legume-based rather than N fertilizer-based farms have lower potential N losses. In order to understand processes of innovation linked to farming that re-couples C and N cycling, and to advance development of policies supporting these practices, we then conducted qualitative interviews with 16 farmers who had transitioned from industrial farming to highly N conserving management practices to ask they had made transitions in their farming operations. Transition dynamics will be analyzed through reference to contemporary sociological theories of technical change. We also discuss epistemological issues relevant to interdisciplinary studies of agricultural sustainability.
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J. Brett Hill
Hendrix College
Co-Authors: Alexandra Miller, Elizabeth Wentz and C. Michael Barton
Title: Archaeoclimatology and Ancient Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics
An interdisciplinary research project to study long-term interaction of human and natural systems in Jordan and southeastern Spain allows comparison of similar landscapes with different Holocene socio-ecological histories. Paleoclimate is critical to reconstructing ancient vegetation, and to understanding land use decisions and their consequences for landscapes during the early development of agriculture and pastoralism. New GIS techniques of retrodicting, interpolating, and validating paleoclimate models provide marked improvement over traditional spatial interpolation of climate parameters, and offer informative comparisons with proxy measures as well as independent indices for evaluating their interpretation. Together these techniques illustrate the importance of including empirical geographical qualities in interpolation, and the value of independent models in interpreting the role of humans in ancient environmental change.
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Ping Liu
Michigan State University
Co-Authors: N/A
Title: American National Forest Management and its Implications to China
Under the tide of the global environmental protection, America has regarded the ecosystem management as the basis of the national forest management policy since the 1990s. The paper, by using the combined theoretical and practical method, studies the American national forest management policy systematically to analysis the existing operating conditions of national forests in China. It puts forward that China should draw lessons from American successful experience on national forest management, especially the natural forests protection. It provides a series of helpful proposals for Chinese national forest management such as perfecting the legal protection measures of forestry and forest conservation, enhancing forestation, reducing the government's administrative intervention, creating a favorable market environment to stimulate the initiative of private investment in forestry, reflecting the purpose of people-oriented. On the base of them, it advocates to develop forest economy actively to achieve the harmony between man and forests, ensuring the rational management and sustainable development of national forest.
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Fei Meng
Clark University
Co-Authors: N/A
Title: Method to show the level of stationarity of a land change process along a gradient: Forest regrowth at Hubbard Brook
This paper presents a method to visualize the variation in intensity of land transformation along a gradient, such as topographic slope or distance to road. We illustrate the procedure with maps of forest versus non-forest for three points in time 1860, 1930, and 2001. The study area is Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, where there has been substantial forest clearing before 1860 and substantial forest regrowth after 1860. The method reclassifies a continuous gradient into several bins as in a histogram, and then computes gross gains and gross losses of forest within each bin to analyze the stationarity of the land transformation process between the two time intervals: from 1860 to 1930 and from 1930 to 2001.
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Thuy Nguyen
Clark University
Co-Authors: J. Hepinstall-Cymerman, T. Gragson, J.Chamblee, R.G. Pontius Jr.
Title: Sensitivity of land cover analysis to category aggregation
A typical challenge in the analysis of land cover change is that maps frequently have so many categories that it is difficult to interpret the results. Category aggregation is one method to reduce the number of categories, but category aggregation must be performed strategically so that it highlights important transitions and ignores unimportant transitions. This study examines how the analysis of land cover transitions over time can be sensitive to category aggregation. Cross-tabulation matrices are used to define land cover categories as net gainers or net losers. Then, the strategic aggregation of gainers with gainers and losers with losers combines pairs of categories for aggregation, which results in a small set of important categories. Cross-tabulation matrices are used to explore how the amount and trend of transitions among categories changes as a function of aggregation. The final set of land transitions is plotted against topographic slope to see whether the transitions are stable over time with respect to slope gradient.
The method is illustrated by using land cover data of the Little Tennessee Watershed within Coweeta Long Term Ecological Research site for three points in time 1986, 1991 and 1996.The initial unaggregated maps have 15 different categories, many of which constitute less than 5% of the landscape. The initial result shows that the aggregation of ‘Deciduous forest’ causes the largest reduction in the total amount of change over the landscape.
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Tom Saladyga
West Virginia University
http://www.geo.wvu.edu/~tsaladyga/
Co-Authors: Peter M. Brown, Amy E. Hessl, Baatarbileg Nachin, Neil Pederson, and Byambagerel Suran
Title: Climate, fire, and land use interactions in the upper Tuul River watershed, Mongolia
Increasing temperatures and incidence of extreme climatic events such as drought are expected to occur earliest and be most pronounced at higher latitudes and in semi-arid and arid regions. The ecological and social impacts of changing climatic regimes may be intensified by political and economic policies regarding the use and management of natural resources. In Mongolia, a nation that relies heavily on livestock production, both 20th-century warming and an increase in fire frequency and extent have been documented. Disentangling the effects of climate and land use variability on ecological processes will be critical to natural resource and economic planning into the foreseeable future. The objectives of this study are to test hypotheses about 1) the influence of human population and livestock grazing on fire regimes and forest regeneration in the upper Tuul River watershed and 2) the effects of extreme climatic events on these watershed-scale ecological processes. Forest demography, fuel load, and fire history will be determined at twenty random sites in the upper Tuul River watershed in north-central Mongolia. Targeted sampling will be used during travel between randomly located sites to collect samples from fire-scarred trees at no more than additional 10 sites. Human population and livestock density in the district of Ulaanbaatar and Erdene will be compared to forest and fire histories and existing regional tree-ring reconstructions of climate. These comparisons will aid in determining relationships between forest dynamics, land use, and climate variation during the 20th-century and to the present.
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Kangping Si
Clark University
Co-Authors: Myrica McCune, Hannah Gosnell
Title: Identifying stationarity of land use type transitions between historical trends and future scenarios
This paper presents a general approach to compare trends of historical land transitions to scenarios of future land transitions. We illustrate the procedure with data from the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon. The method uses cross-tabulation matrices to examine all possible transitions among land use types to distinguish clearly systematic transitions from seemingly random transitions. The method is designed to distinguish the scenarios that show a continuation of past trends from the scenarios that show a deviation from past trends.
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Christina Tonitto
Cornell University
Co-Authors: Laurie Drinkwater
Title: Development of the sustainability concept across natural and social science disciplines
Since the Brundtland Commission, the need to adopt sustainability as a societal goal has become widely accepted in academic, governmental, corporate, and civil spheres. In practice, successful implementation of sustainability goals has been extremely limited due to the difficulty in defining specific, attainable goals and then assessing progress toward these sustainability goals. An inherent difficulty in sustainability assessment which is rarely recognized is the escalating pace of change occurring in coupled human-natural systems. We review the academic literature as well as selected examples of sustainability indicator frameworks that are being applied at national and corporate scales. Meaningful application of existing frameworks has been limited and detectable changes in the trajectory of human impacts on the biosphere have not occurred. A major short-coming has been the assessment of social sustainability; when indicator frameworks do include social indicators, the integration of social and biophysical metrics has been problematic. Comprehensive indicator frameworks are cumbersome and expensive to apply. Interdisciplinary work is still in its formative stages; as a result the development of truly holistic metrics of sustainability has been elusive. Given the rapid rate of change in coupled human and natural systems, we conclude that quantitative resource accounting should be prioritized in setting sustainability goals.
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Julie Winkler
Michigan State University
Co-Authors: Julie Winkler, Suzanne Thornsbury, Pang-Ning Tan, Jeffrey Andresen, J. Roy Black, Scott Loveridge , Shiyuan Zhong, Jinhua Zhao, Amy Iezzoni, Nikki Rothwell, Géza Bujdosό, Frank-M. Chmielewski, Peter Hilsendegen, Dieter Kirschke,
Robert Kurlus, Malgorzata Liszewska , Tadeusz Niedzwiedz, Denys Nizalov, Zbigniew Ustrnul, Harald von Witzke, Costanza Zavalloni, Marco Artavia, Sangjun Lee, Mollie Woods
Title: Climate Change Impact Assessments: Moving from the Local to the Global
The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production along with evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, and steps for implementing and evaluating the framework, are outlined. An important component is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models.
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Wuxuan Xiang
Clark University
Co-Authors: Jeffrey Onsted, Robert Gilmore Pontius
Title: The Markov model versus an alternative model of land transitions over time: a case study of land change in the Florida Coastal Ecosystems
This poster compares two models of land transitions over time: the Markov model and the model of Pontius et al. (2004). A traditional and common way of analyzing and predicting land change over time is to use the Markov model, which results in a predictive transition matrix that expresses a constant probability of transition from one category to another during each time interval. In the Markov model, if the transitions probabilities are stable over time, then the land change process is considered stationary over time. This is only one possible conceptual definition of stationary. If a study area shows a constant area of transition per unit time, then the study area would be considered non-stationary by the Markov model but would be considered stationary by other simpler models. In Pontius’ model, stationarity of transitions are measured by gross gains and gross losses of each category during the time intervals. This alternative model also examines whether there are non-random transitions, given the allocation of categories in the maps. The empirical data are from the Florida Coastal Ecosystems study area in Redlands, Florida. The three years are: 1994, 2001, and 2006.
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Emily Yeh
University of Colorado-Boulder
Co-Authors: Richard Harris, Don Bedunah, Andrew Smith
Title: Determinants of grassland dynamics in Tibetan highlands: livestock, wildlife and the culture and political economy of pastoralism
This poster will present the basic objectives, study area, and methods of a five-year project currently in its very stages. Grasslands of the Tibetan plateau are described as increasingly degraded, a situation blamed variously on over-stocking, poor livestock management, historical-cultural factors, alteration of land tenure arrangements, climate change, and excessive herbivory and soil disturbance by pikas and other wildlife. However, studies to date have not provided clear support for these putative causative agents, nor have they examined interactions and complexity among them. Thus, policy choices to reduce grassland degradation are being made without clear rationales, and more on prejudice or convenience than evidence they will work. However, they have had dramatic implications for the alteration of Tibetan livelihoods.
The research will be conducted in two sites in Qinghai province: one in Gouli township, Dulan prefecture, and the other in Chenduo county, Yushu prefecture. The project will use replicated measurements at permanent plots in a multi-strata design at both sites, measuring the strength of evidence for various competing hypotheses, as well as an exclosure experiment. It will link ecological measurements directly to current and recent historical actions by pastoralists, which in turn, are affected by cultural idioms, economic incentives, and central and provincial-level policies. In addition to biophysical attributes of each site, livestock density and pasture usage patterns will be quantified. The results will be models that link broad historical, policy, economic, and cultural factors to local grassland conditions as mediated by the agency of individual pastoralists.
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Yue Zhang
Clark University
Co-Authors: N/A
Title: Assessment of Land-cover Transitions Inside Versus Outside Protection Areas in Luquillo, Puerto
In this research, land-cover maps of 1950, 1977, 1990 and 2000 in Luquillo, Puerto Rico are used to produce several transition matrices for protected areas separately from unprotected areas. Each map has 10 land-cover classifications, which most of them are represented different types of forest. We analyze how the land transitions inside the protected areas compared to the transitions outside the protected areas according to their various components to identify landscape transitions based on deviations between the transitions observed and the transition expected owing to random processes of change. The results show the influence of conservation on environment over time and highlight the efficiency of the protection which can be used by policy makers to support their decisions in local government.
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Jefferson Fox
East-West Center
http://www.eastwestcenter.org
Co-Authors: Sumeet Saksena, Melissa Finucane, Zhe Li, Tran Duc Vien, Nguyen Huu Nam, Ngyuen Thi Lan, Jim Spencer, Bruce Wilcox, Durrell Kapan, Ian Pagano, Michael Epprecht
Title: Urbanization, Agricultural Intensification, and Habitat Alteration in Vietnam: Modeling Transitional Development and Emerging Infectious Diseases
We seek to develop and test a coupled-human-natural-system model that incorporates the core elements of social ecological systems and resilience (SESR) theory and risk transition theory. Our overarching hypothesis is that new risks, in this case the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, emerge during transitions between stages of development. Moreover, these risks are not coincidental but occur precisely because of the in-between nature of the coupled human-natural system at the point when things are neither traditional nor modern but resemble the state of chaos, release and reorganization. We seek to test this hypothesis in the nation of Vietnam based on a ‘lived’ place-based unit of analysis, in which particular spaces are seen to be high-risk or low-risk. We will use demographic, social, economic, and environmental data collected in national censuses and analyzed at commune and district levels to identify communes and districts which are traditional, modern, and transitional. We will also analyze land-cover variables through time-series analysis of remotely sensed images classified at commune and district levels. We will then test the hypothesis that unique health risks peak in intensity in communities that are transitional (no longer traditional but not yet modern) by correlating different types of communities to out breaks of avian influenza in poultry. This is a novel way of looking at avian influenza and other health risks like it, suggesting these risks are not an accident of time and place, but rather that they are the product of the modernization transition.
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Laurie Drinkwater
Cornell University
Co-Authors: Cornelia B. Flora
Title: Coupling at multiple scales in agricultural landscapes of the Mississippi River Basin: What are the drivers and consequences?
The Mississippi River Basin (MRB) exemplifies a highly productive agricultural system with multiple ecological, human health and social consequences. Significant societal resources have been directed toward mitigating the environmental impacts of intensive agricultural production. Social impacts are not widely acknowledged. We assess the trajectory of the MRB as a model coupled human-natural system and tentatively identify the mechanisms underlying adaptive and maladaptive coupling, with attention to areas where adaptive coupling has been partially successful. The environmental and social context in which farms and local agricultural systems are situated varies within the extensive watershed that comprises the MRB. We use this spatial heterogeneity to analyze social-biophysical interactions and linkages using differentially defined units of analysis: watershed, community, and county. We identified key regions in the Basin that are contributing disproportionately to nitrogen pollution and also have increased out-migration and poverty rates over time and space. These regions respond to large-scale signals governed by social processes, which effectively target farms with the greatest potential for high crop yields. Societal efforts at these large scales aimed at environmental degradation are not effectively targeting counties or farmers responsible for pollution. In contrast, adaptive coupling mechanisms are present within certain local communities. Overall, the MRB system is dominated by cross-scale coupling mechanisms which effectively over-ride local and regional linkages that would support adaptive coupling. These mechanisms have overwhelmingly emphasized production outcomes rather than a broader set of ecosystem services and human well-being.over-ride local and regional linkages that would support adaptive coupling. These mechanisms have overwhelmingly emphasized production outcomes rather than a broader set of ecosystem services and human well-being.over-ride local and regional linkages that would support adaptive coupling. These mechanisms have overwhelmingly emphasized production outcomes rather than a broader set of ecosystem services and human well-being.
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Ryan Galt
University of California, Davis
Co-Authors: N/A
Title: Adaptive and maladaptive coupling in Costa Rican vegetable production: explaining multi-scalar linkages between social and biophysical causes and outcomes in intensive agricultural systems
Using the case of intensive vegetable production in Costa Rica, I examine complex, multi-scalar linkages between biophysical and social processes. Focusing on local-scale drivers, I show the importance of topographic and climatic differences to agricultural production and socioeconomic differentiation. Resource-rich farmers respond to strong environmental variability by pursuing a spatial production strategy to exploit “environmental advantage,” a production advantage that accrues from the biophysical characteristics of a certain locale. This allows wealthier farmers to increase produce yield and quality, decrease pesticide use, and thereby obtain higher profit margins. In contrast, resource-poor farming households living in the same place maintain production in environments that are climatically problematic for vegetables, use pesticides more intensively, are more likely to be on the pesticide treadmill, and generally have lower profit margins. Thus, evidence exists for both adaptive and maladaptive coupling that is strongly influenced by farm families’ relative wealth. These local socioeconomic and biophysical conditions and processes intersect with extra-local drivers, the most important of which is industrialized nations’ food regulation acting from afar. These regulations generally impel export farmers to lower pesticide use relative to producers of the same vegetables for local markets. Thus, coupling in terms of reducing pesticide use and adopting agroecological practices is also strongly driven by extra-local food regulation, whereas local food regulation has little effect on farmers' pest and agroecological management. Conclusions discuss political ecology's contribution to co-evolutionary/feedback thinking, and theoretical issues in identifying inter- and inner-actions in social-biophysical systems at multiple scales.
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Guillermo Podestá
University of Miami, Rosenstiel School
Co-Authors: F. Bert, E. Weber, M. North, C. Macal, P. Sydelko, S. Rovere, C. Laciana, A. Menéndez, F. Ruiz Toranzo, and M. Torrent
Title: Recent changes in agricultural systems of the Argentine Pampas
The Argentine Pampas underwent recent significant changes in land use and farm structural characteristics: (i) expansion of soybean-dominated agriculture, (ii) reduction (increase) in number (size) of farms, and (iii) increase in area farmed by short-term tenants (less likely to follow beneficial crop rotations). Multiple drivers are relevant. Regional precipitation increases since the 1970s pushed agriculture westward. Macroeconomic reforms fostered investment in technology. Protein demand by fast-growing economies produced high prices for agricultural commodities. Innovations like wheat/soybean double cropping, no-tillage planting and genetically-modified soybean played major roles. Creation of governmental and stakeholder institutions for agricultural research and extension enhanced technology diffusion. While the “soy boom” brought huge economic benefits, food security concerns are increasing: as 50% of the Pampas are planted with soybean, the system is brittle to shocks or surprises. Other concerns are soil degradation, water contamination and herbicide-resistant weeds. Social issues involve loss of rural jobs and small farms. We develop an agent-based model to understand observed patterns and explore policy interventions. The model includes realistic processes (economies of scale, land markets) driving structural change. On each model cycle, farmers choose crops, achieve economic outcomes, adapt their economic aspirations and land allocation and, if capital is available, expand by renting additional land. Small farms (< 70-80 has) cannot generate income to cover production costs and household expenses, thus are leased out (resulting in fewer active farmers). Predominance of soybean emerges from even very simple land allocation mechanisms, reflecting the higher profits of soybean in recent years.
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Steve Vanek
Cornell University
Co-Authors: Laurie Drinkwater (Cornell), Andrew Jones (Cornell)
Title: Smallholder farming in northern Potosi, Bolivia: challenges to local adaptive coupling in an Andean setting
Highland farmers in Northern Potosí, Bolivia practice mixed crop/livestock subsistence agriculture in which extensive rangeland grazing provides nutrients in manure for crop production. Their farms, communities, and outside networks represent a coupled human and natural system where we might expect tight coupling between the environment and management. We analyze soil degradation as a driver of this system and test whether soil nutrient balances correlate to household food security, a locally felt signal necessary for adaptive coupling to sustain productivity. Nutrient balances reveal that soil erosion is a major driver that undermines productive capacity. Farmers’ dependence on ecosystem services in range and crop areas would make this degradation signal seem effective in causing farmers to reduce soil erosion rates. Reduced food security shows evidence for this signal at household scales. However, other processes at both local and regional scales make adaptation difficult and foster maladaptive coupling. Locally, buffering of soil nutrient stocks delays farmers’ perceptions of degradation compared to the nutrient balance approach. Increased grazing of common rangeland enables higher manuring rates with low immediate cost and substitutes for more costly and innovation-intensive reductions in erosion. Lack of credit or other incentives and reduced food security also inhibit households’ adaptive ability. Regionally, outmigration and off-farm income play a role in coping with reduced on-farm productivity and damping the coupling signal. Our work suggests that both local and cross-scale factors play a role in limiting the perception and the response to environmental signals for adaptive coupling by smallholder farmers.
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Lily House-Peters
Portland State University
Co-Authors: Heejun Chang, Portland State University
Title: The Challenge of Predicting Future Urban Water Demand: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach
Previous research investigating urban residential water demand has either employed social science methods to examine human attitudes and behaviors or statistical models to explain the impacts of climate and other biophysical processes. The lack of integration of social science and natural science methods to analyze patterns of urban water demand has resulted in limited understanding of the coupled natural and human systems. Furthermore, while statistical models have the ability to investigate multiple determinants, both social and ecological, they do not model the effects of complex feedback loops among variables within an ever changing environment. System dynamics modeling improves upon traditional statistical models by more accurately representing the complexity and dynamism inherent in coupled human and natural systems. This research examines residential water demand in Hillsboro, Oregon, a rapidly growing municipality in the Portland metropolitan area, using a system dynamics modeling approach to examine the multiple determinants, stresses, and interactions that influence urban water demand. By incorporating dynamic ecological, demographic, behavioral, and land use variables, the model accounts for the complex relationships among each of the variables and elucidates potential tipping points, beyond which abrupt and surprising changes may occur. The model is run multiple times simulating changes to the system for 55 years (1995 – 2050) under various climate change, population growth, land use change and conservation scenarios. The findings of this study have significant policy implications and reveal the potential for system dynamics modeling to be integrated in decision-support tools in a changing environment.
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Tim Lant
Arizona State University
http://www.decisiontheater.org
Co-Authors: Sharon Harlan
Title: Scenario Exercises as Synthetic Decision-making Environments for Urban Vulnerability to Climate
We will present ongoing research from our Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change project, which studies the coupled human-natural system dynamics of climate variability and change, landscapes and urban form, heat-related health outcomes, and social adaptation and mitigation in Phoenix, Arizona.
We are developing scenario exercises that present risks and vulnerabilities from extreme heat events as synthetic decision-making environments. The exercise will visualize and narrate potential heat wave situations using quantitative and qualitative inputs. These scenarios are grounded in the biophysical, social, and decision sciences to allow participants to explore the consequences of their choices and actions in addition to better understanding the feedbacks of human decision-making to the social and biophysical environment. Participants in these exercises will include local representatives of municipal, state, and federal government, nonprofits, and grassroots organizations. The scenario exercises will be conducted at the Decision Theater at Arizona State University.
This research enables us to study the theoretical constructs of human vulnerability, adaptation, and risk-management through synthetic decisions taken by groups and individuals during our exercises. Collectively, we aim to study the adaptive capacity of the population to respond to the scenarios in a reactive mode and the prospective planning processes that influence the environment in the face of potential environmental risk. These decisions will be studied from social and ecological perspectives, including institutional and organizational structures, that develop and guide coupling dynamics.
We will discuss methods used during the development of scenario materials, human subjects research, media development, model integration, informatics, and visualization.
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Daniel Hogan
University of Campinas
Co-Authors: N/A
Title: URBAN GROWTH, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION:social and ecological dimensions of climate change on the Coast of São Paulo
This project seeks to lay the groundwork for the long-term study of the environmental consequences of climate change on the Coast of São Paulo. It asks specific scientific questions about the spatial and demographic constraints which will condition adaptive response to climate change by coastal communities and local-regional governments; about the context of social conflict concerning the appropriation of the region’s natural resources and the potential solutions this conflict may generate for resolving the new tensions introduced by climate change; about local and regional governmental actors’ knowledge, concern and actions regarding climate change; and about the ecological changes which may occur as a consequence of climate change. While the project is a multi-method, multi-scale research program, which includes all 15 municipalities of the São Paulo Coast and Cubatão (socio-economically, geographically and ecologically an integral part of the region, but not directly on the Coast), much of the research will be centered in Caraguatatuba. There, large-scale infrastructure investments in extraction and transportation of offshore oil and gas, planned and now underway, will condition the range of possible mitigation measures, socio-demographic and ecological vulnerabilities and adaptive responses to climate change. While the research team which presents this project has a long history of cooperative research, the complex nature of climate change demands new levels of integration. In associating geospatial, demographic, political, cultural and ecological dimensions within a single project, we seek to advance in the construction of more appropriate paradigms of coupled social and ecological systems.
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Scott Drzyzga
Shippensburg University
http://webspace.ship.edu/sadrzy
Co-Authors: Claire Jantz
Title: Analyzing and visualizing the evolution of journey-to-work flows in the Baltimore metropolitan region.
The City of Baltimore was formerly near the top of the US urban hierarchy and a thriving center of employment and population. In the early 1900s, the city reinforced its centrality by building reservoirs in its rural hinterland and pipelines and pump stations to deliver water to the urban area. The legacy of that design still informs land use decisions today. The emergence of the American suburb in the 1940s, the federal highway system in the 1950s and 60s, and new forms of economic activity around the Washington, DC region have, however, decoupled some regional human activity with the central City of Baltimore and, hence, its water supply system. This decoupling has created a complex system of new linkages and feedbacks between regional water demands and supplies. Ongoing work seeks to predict future changes in this complex system by coupling a model of urban growth and a three-dimensional hydrologic model for the region. This paper reports an innovative approach for analyzing and visualizing the evolution of journey-to-work flows in the Baltimore region (1970 to 2000, by census) and we explain how we use our results to inform the urban growth component of our coupled model.
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Dylan McNamara / Brad Murray
University of North Carolina, Wilmington
Co-Authors: Marty Smith, Sathya Gopalakrishnan, Jordan Slott, Tom Crowley, Mike Orbach, and Joe Ramus
Title: Coastline change and coastal economies coupled through beach replenishment
Coastline change and coastal economies are coupled. As coastal property erodes, societies intervene to stabilize the shoreline in some locations. These interventions alter the configuration of the coast, ultimately feeding back on future changes in coastline dynamics. To explore these feedbacks, we use a numerical model that incorporates coastline evolution from alongshore sediment transport and sea level rise, as well as the economic forces that drive beach replenishment (a.k.a ‘nourishment’), including the economic benefits of beach width and the costs of replenishing. In this model, climate change tightens the coupling between human activities and shoreline change. Changing storm behaviors alter the wave climate, which tends to reshape a sandy coastline. Using a Carolina-like coastline as a case study, the numerical model demonstrates that shoreline change is rapid and spatially heterogeneous as the coast changes shape. Continued beach replenishment in key locations can largely prevent the natural changes, but stabilization becomes increasingly costly as climate changes increase and available sand resources decrease through time. High property values in the key locations lead to longer periods of stabilization before replenishment is abandoned in those locations, triggering a cascade of increasing erosion rates and further stabilization abandonment. Model outcomes depend on scenarios for climate change and the costs of sand for replenishment. Results show strong couplings between the property value distribution, erosion patterns, the depletion rate of the available sand reservoir, and the length of time that the practice of beach nourishment remains viable.
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Michael Barton
Arizona State University
Co-Authors: Isaac Ullah, Gary Mayer, Hessam Sarjoughian, Sean Bergin, Alexendra Miller, Helena Mitasova
Title: Coupled Models for Coupled Systems: Land-Use and Landscape Dynamics in the Mediterranean
Coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) are doubly complex because they involve recursive linkages between the biophysical and social worlds. For this reason, scientists are increasingly turning to diverse forms of quantitative modeling to understand spatial and temporal dynamics, and begin to unravel non-linear causation in these coupled systems.
Currently, there are a number of modeling approaches that can be applied to CHANS with different strengths and weaknesses, but no single approach has yet been developed that can best represent all aspects of these highly diverse systems. In the Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics (MedLand) project, we have taken a modular approach to modeling CHANS. We couple different model formalisms to create a computational laboratory for studying the long-term interactions of agropastoral land-use and landscape change in the ancient Mediterranean. Major components of the laboratory involve an agent-based model of human households and their land-use decisions, a GIS-based cellular automata of terrain and its changes, a regression-based model of local climate, and an interactive visualization system.
In the MedLand laboratory we are conducting experiments on the decadal to century scale impacts of variable land-use practices and to comparing the results with real outcomes recorded in the archaeological record. We present the results of experimental study of the coupled human and natural processes associated with the beginning of agropastoral economies. This experimental approach in computational social science allows us to compare the long-term consequences of different land-use practices on socio-ecological systems in the eastern and western Mediterranean.
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Nicholas Jordan
University of Minnesota-TC
Co-Authors: Kristen C. Nelson, Steven M. Manson, Rachel F. Brummel, Kathryn M. Clower
Title: Developing an Eco-Social Dynamic Model for Grazing-based Dairy Production in the United States
In agriculture, ‘multifunctionality’ refers to production of a range of goods (agricultural commodities) and ecological services (e.g., conservation of biodiversity and water quality). Multifunctional agriculture is attracting considerable interest because it meets a range of social and ecological challenges to sustainability. Our project is testing a new model in which multifunctional agriculture is understood as a coupled human-environment system driven by ecosocial feedback, weak-tie social network, and multiple biophysical benefits. In this model, critical ecosocial feedback is mediated by ‘weak ties’ social networks, or those that bridge between groups. Weak tie networks allow the shared perception of human wellbeing and biophysical signals as well as communication, resource exchange, and collective action by individuals and groups. Through weak-ties social networks, multifunctional agroecosystems that generate ecological benefits receive resources that increase their spatial extent, better signal these benefits, and increase the size and resource base of social networks. Through empirical and theoretical approaches, we are testing the hypothesis that this ecosocial feedback can overcome systemic barriers to extensive adoption of an important emerging form of multifunctional agriculture, rotational grazing (RG). We have examined selected biophysical (plant and bird communities, erosion hazards, stream and stream bank condition, landscape attributes) and social (history, motivations, attitudinal factors of farm operators, household economics, and social network attributes) aspects of 69 diary farms in three states (NY, WI, PA) that differ markedly in development of RG. We are using empirical findings to create an agent-based model of RG dynamics that examines the interactions among actors, institutions, and the environment.
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T. Mitchell Aide
University of Puerto Rico
Co-authors: Matthew Clark, Ricardo Grau, Maria Jose Andrade, and Martha Bonilla
Title: How has demographic dynamics affected patterns of landuse in Central America?
The major objective of this study is to test the hypothesis that economic globalization and rural-urban migration are the major factors driving the conversion of native ecosystems to modern agriculture in the lowlands and promoting the abandonment of marginal agricultural and grazing lands in mountainous regions in Latin America. To test this hypothesis we combined municipality level population and socio-economic data with remote sensing analyses of land-cover/land-use change in Central America. The population of all countries in Central America increased between the last two censuses (approx. 1990 – 2000), but their growth rate varied greatly. The population of El Salvador grew the slowest, while Guatemala grew the fastest. Furthermore, many municipalities lost population in Nicaragua (34%), El Salvador (27%), and Panama (24%), while only a few municipalities lost population in Guatemala, Honduras, and Costa Rica. Contrary to our expectations, population change was not a good predictor of forest cover change. In fact, many municipalities gained forest cover even though their population increased. In general, areas of reforestation were associated with municipalities with high variation in elevation. The main conclusion of this study is that reforestation/deforestation patterns in Central America are the result of complex interactions involving population dynamics, socio-economics, and environmental factors.
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Daniel Brown
University of Michigan
Co-Authors: William S. Currie, Joan I. Nassauer, Scott E. Page, Dawn C. Parker, Rick L. Riolo, Derek T. Robinson
Title: Coupling land use and land management processes with vegetation productivity and carbon storage in exurban Southeastern Michigan
The latter half of the twentieth century saw a significant dispersion of residential development into formerly rural areas, a process referred to as rural or exurban sprawl. The widespread nature of this phenomenon suggests a potentially large impact on land-based carbon dynamics. Viewing this process as one that is at once socioeconomic and biophysical in nature has lead us to conceive of models that combine land market, land management, and vegetation productivity measures. In describing our multidisciplinary project (Project SLUCE), we will (a) describe some key findings about land-change processes and landscape productivity that motivate the development of integrated models, (b) identify some questions that these findings lead us to and (c) describe the conceptual and implementation frameworks we have constructed for pursuing answers to these questions. Within the context of these frameworks, developed by a multi-disciplinary team, we outline the current status of combined empirical and modeling efforts and present initial findings. Our interim findings suggest that (a) developers and the developments they create are quite variable, but perhaps not as variable as market demand might indicate; (b) carbon storage on residential landscapes varies by age, initial design and management regimes; (c) residential land management is a socially and economically driven process; and (d) integration of social and biophysical models requires significant attention to, and integration of, the time and space scales of these multiple processes.
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Colin Polsky
Clark University
http://www.clarku.edu/hero
Co-Authors: Gil Pontius, Wil Wollheim, Albert Decatur, Nick Giner, Kate Johnson, Rahul Rakshit, Dan Runfola
Title: Progress in High-Resolution Modeling of Coupled Human-Natural Systems: The Case of Suburban Boston (the PIE LTER site)
Human alterations of the earth's surface are widely recognized as one of the planet's most significant cumulative global environmental changes. Increasing population and per capita income suggest that this trend will continue in coming decades. In countries such as the US this process manifests principally as suburbanization. Yet our understanding of the specific causes of US suburbanization and associated consequences is limited because we also lack a systematic baseline description of the location, extent, timing, and rates of land use- and -cover changes where the process is suspected to be important. This presentation reports on a project to examine suburbanization in the northern Boston suburbs. The presentation will focus on how the project's core dataset - a <1m parcel-level classification emphasizing the various types of lawn-cover - is being used to catalyze analysis of the social and environmental dimensions of the presence and management of suburban lawns, with a focus on mapping present and future associated water and chemical inputs.
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Xiaodong Chen
Michigan State University
Co-Authors: Frank Lupi, Andres Vina, Guangming He, Jianguo Liu
Title: Integrating household characteristics into targeting of conservation investments in payments for ecosystem services
Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have increasingly been implemented to protect and restore environmental benefits worldwide. Both flat payment scheme (where all participants are paid at the same price) and discriminative payment scheme (where payments differ according to the opportunity costs) have been used although the efficiency of conservation investments in different payment schemes can be substantially different. Previous studies on the cost-effectiveness of PES programs have targeted environmental benefits from PES programs based on land features. However, household characteristics of program participants have usually been neglected. We study the potential for targeting within China’s Grain-to-Green Program (GTGP, one of the largest PES programs in the world) by incorporating household characteristics of program participants in Wolong Nature Reserve. We found that household characteristics were significant determinants of opportunity costs of landholders for re-enrolling their GTGP land upon the maturation of the original contracts. By comparing environmental benefits obtained through different payment schemes, we found that the efficiency of conservation investment using cost-effective targeting in a discriminative payment scheme is substantially higher than that through a flat payment scheme. Moreover, both optimal cost-effective targeting and sub-optimal targeting can obtain substantially more environmental benefits than those from random selection of land plots in discriminative payment scheme. Our results suggest that cost-effective targeting and discriminative conservation payment tools, such as competitive auctions, can be used to substantially improve the efficiency of conservation investments in the GTGP and other PES programs in the world.
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Tricia Knoot
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Co-Authors: Mark Rickenbach
Title: Social capital and private forests: the role of personal networks in environmental decision-making
Most forestland in the U.S. is in private ownership, consequently a variety of ecosystem services available to society are dependent on sustainable land management decisions by individual landowners. Landowner decision-making is a complex process and shaped by individual landowner attributes and social context. For example, forest owners often rely on family and friends, as well as forestry “experts,” for information and technical assistance. Theory and analysis of social relationships, i.e. social networks, emphasize the importance of network structure to the flow of beneficial resources among actors. However, social network structure surrounding private forest management has received little attention. We evaluate the influence of social networks on sustainable private forest management and provision of ecosystem services. We interviewed 44 landowners in Wisconsin, and evaluated their personal, i.e. egocentric, networks and use of voluntary Best Management Practices (BMPs) for water quality during a recent timber harvest. Concurrently, we interviewed 28 forestry professionals to determine the impact of network structure on their capacity to meet landowners’ needs. Preliminary results suggest an increase in landowner ties to experts, specifically a public forester, increases BMP implementation, but may also increase landowners’ perceived difficulty with the management process. Furthermore, forestry professionals’ social networks appear to be influenced by a public policy tool—i.e. tax incentive program—which in turn affects professionals’ capacity to impact landowner behavior. We discuss the methodological challenges but important contribution of understanding social networks surrounding land management decisions. We also stress the need for improved understanding of the impact of public policy on social networks, individual decisions, and ecological outcomes.
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Anthony Halog
University of Maine
http://ielcass.tripod.com/ilss
Co-Authors: Shashi Dhungel
Title: Operationalizing Sustainability through Modeling CHANS for Bioenergy Development
The 21st century problems are more complex and involve multiple environmental media and stressors. They need therefore new kinds of interdisciplinary thinking and systems solutions. Forces influencing human and ecological health are systemic and interlinked which affect global sustainability.
Sustainability is an emergent property of a complex adaptive system whereby its agents (e.g. stakeholders, actors) across temporal and spatial scales interact for the common good of global society. Genuine sustainability, as articulated by the 1987’s Brundtland Report and scientifically formalized by The Natural Step (TNS), follows four first-order ‘System Conditions’ based upon the scientific foundation of the Laws of Thermodynamics and studies of humans as social species. These TNS Sustainability Principles state that “In the sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically increasing….
1. …concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust;
2. …concentrations of substances produced by society;
3. …degradation by physical means; and
4. People are not subject to conditions that systematically undermine their capacity to meet their needs”.
These principles posit that the only truly sustainable form of progress can be achieved when the interdependent aspects of social well-being, environment and economy (SEE) are simultaneously addressed. We propose a holistic and multi-agent based adaptive system model in accord with TNS Sustainability Principles to operationalize these true principles and understand the dynamic coupling of human and natural systems (CHANS) as it influences the creation of a sustainable industrial energy system in Maine.
This systems model is being applied to developing forest derived biofuels and bioproducts.
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Rusheng Yin
Michigan State Unversity
Co-Authors: N/A
Title: Assessing the impacts of China’s ecological restoration
To alleviate environmental challenges, such as soil erosion, desertification, and biodiversity loss, and to to reduce rural poverty and promote agricultural restructuring, the Chinese government has undertaken several ecological restoration programs (ERPs) since the late 1990s, including the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP), the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), and the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin (DCBT). The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of these ERPs on both land use and rural livelihood in western China and to examine the specific measures adopted in implementing them. The land-use changes are detected from satellite images, whereas the livelihood changes are derived from household survey data. Our results show that the SLCP has dramatically reduced farming on sloping cropland and thus increased forest and grass covers, the NFPP has stabilized the natural forests, and the DCBT has reversed the trend of grassland degradation. Meanwhile, the income of participants has increased and a large number of farming and herding laborers has been transferred to off-farm and off-village sectors. As encouraging as these findings may be, it must be recognized that a large portion of the retired cropland has not been adequately re-vegetated, the structure of the natural forests has not been much improved, and a lot of the planted trees and restored grass covers remains in poor growth. Similarly, many of the transferred laborers remain transitory and the prospects for continued income growth are worrisome. Thus, it is essential for China to take a more proactive and effective approach by strengthening the governance of program implementation, emphasizing the active engagement of local people, establishing an independent and competent monitoring network, and conducting adequate assessments of program effectiveness and impact.
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Daniel Kramer
Michigan State University
http://www.globalchange.msu.edu/facstaff.html
Co-Authors: Gerald Urquhart
Title: Spatial and temporal dimensions of socioeconomic and environmental change along Nicaragua’s Caribbean Coast
As remote communities are connected to global markets, technologies, and migration—thereby decreasingly isolated—the scope and scale of socioeconomic and environmental changes are interwoven in the coupling of human and natural systems. Communities along the Atlantic Coast of Nicaragua are undergoing dramatic change resulting from decreasing isolation. Previous efforts to unravel the socioeconomic and environmental causal pathways of such changes have yielded mixed results. In part, this is due to the inherent complexity of such issues but also due to the neglect of both spatial and temporal dimensions of these change processes. We examine how these drivers affect household behavior and local natural resources along spatial and temporal dimensions. Here, we 1) illustrate the diversity of the study communities and natural surroundings, 2) examine the variability among households in these communities in terms of market access, technology adoption, and migration patterns, and 3) present early indications of the effects of these drivers on household farming and fishing practices. We find significant temporal and spatial differences between and within communities, as well as between economic sectors. For example, the fisheries sector of the region was much more responsive to expanded market access than the agricultural sector in terms of changes in household behaviors. Since many rural communities, development organizations, and governments are advocating for more physical and technological connection to remote regions of the world, an improved understanding of how to confront what are often considered development versus environment tradeoffs is vital in maintaining local ecological integrity and livelihoods.
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Jeffrey Luzar
SUNY-ESF
Co-Authors: Jose Fragoso, Kirsten Silvius, Luiz Flamarion, Sean Giery, Oskar Burger
Title: Feedbacks in a Tropical Coupled Human-Natural System of the Amazon Basin
We identify, describe, measure and analyze the social feedbacks motivating worldviews and hunting behavior as Amazonian indigenous people become more tightly coupled to national societies. To assess worldviews, we gathered data on visits to shamans by community members. We noted the frequency and reason for visits as well as the nature of the advice given (e.g. if any meat is to be avoided). We also noted feedbacks linking individuals and communities to the biotic environment. We detail the nature of change using household level information on education, language fluencies, time spent in urban areas as well as data on household wealth, salaries and participation in the national market. Hunting behavior is one feedback that changes as indigenous societies become more tightly coupled to national societies. From hunter surveys we ascertained the reasons for using or avoiding certain animal species. These surveys indicated that various species, including grey brocket deer, dwarf caiman and anacondas, among others, are commonly avoided due to beliefs about spiritually dangerous aspects of these meats/animals. This analysis allows us to determine the strength of feedbacks in influencing and responding to integration into the national society. It also allows us to examine the nature of linkages between animals and the cultural mechanisms mediating hunting.
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Oskar Burger
Stanford University
Co-Authors: Jose MV Fragoso, Jerome Chave
Title: A modeling family tree: the abundance and distribution of modeling approaches in the CHANS community
We are reviewing modeling approaches within the family of projects formed by NSF’s CHANS and biocomplexity programs. We focus on grants that target the articulations of human societies with critical ecological resources and/or environmental constraints. The subject matter, research directive, and methodologies used by this grant family are incredibly broad; as, by requirement, all of these projects are highly interdisciplinary. Our aim is to identify patterns in the selection of modeling approaches by the CHANS community. Which modeling approaches are used most (and least) often, and why? Are there any specific approaches we should use more frequently? To accomplish this we will develop taxonomy to organize this range of techniques and describe the connections among them. For instance, models will be initially categorized into computational, numerical, statistical, and analytical, and then further subdivided as needed. Thus far we have contacted 79 project PIs for copies of grants and publications. The documents we receive will constitute the sample of modeling approaches and their rationales. We are confident that some (most) of the audience will not agree perfectly with all aspects of our final taxonomy, but much of the value of this endeavor will emerge from the dialogue that any disagreements might promote. A preliminary examination of a subsample of CHANS grants suggests that computational models are exceptionally popular in this group whereas analytical approaches are rare, but these impressions will change with sample size.
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Matthew Clark
Sonoma State University
Co-Authors: T. Mitchell Aide, H. Ricardo Grau, George Riner, Martha Bonilla
Title: Options for mapping recent land-cover change at continental scales using satellite data products
Land cover and land use (LULC) maps depicting recent annual changes are vital for monitoring, understanding and predicting the effects of complex human-nature interactions that span local, regional and global scales. Global issues span political and cultural boundaries, and so LULC maps need to be produced with spatially and temporally consistent information and accuracy, yet in a way that is cost-effective in terms of time and money. These requirements are best met with low-resolution satellite sensors. Freely-available LULC global map products will be reviewed, with a focus on class and change-detection accuracy based on published results and our own tests using Google Earth. We have developed an additional method to map annual LULC at regional scales using low-cost and consistent MODIS satellite data and Google Earth reference data. Our maps have a 250-m pixel size, include eight general LULC classes, and can be produced annually from year 2001 onward. Using the Dry Chaco ecoregion in Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay as a test site, our 2001-2007 maps had an overall accuracy of 74.2%, and a basic map of areas with and without closed-canopy, woody vegetation had an overall accuracy of 90.3%. Conversion of woody vegetation to other classes was detected with 70% accuracy. We will discuss the relative advantages of our map products relative to other options, and as well as the implications for studying human-nature interactions at broad spatial scales.
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Anne Chin
University of Oregon
Co-Authors: Alan Covich, Carol P. Harden, Maria C. Lemos, Ellen E. Wohl
Title: Theoretical bases for social-ecological-geomorphological systems
Anthropogenic changes to Earth are occurring at unprecedented rates, and will likely increase as human population continues to expand. Earth scientists have studied human impacts to the environment primarily from the perspective of humans as drivers of change. Although newer research recognizes the web of interrelationships within coupled natural and human systems, such concepts and approaches remain largely unexplored for geomorphic systems in which physical processes are central. In this paper, we examine the theoretical bases for integrating geomorphological with social and ecological systems, highlighting the characteristics of geomorphic systems that may pose unique properties to coupled systems. Geomorphic systems involve the movement of sediment over Earth’s surfaces, as performed by fluids that include water, ice, and air. The resilience and lag times within such systems depend on thresholds for erosion and mass wasting, and may trigger policy and institutional responses different from those of ecological systems. We propose the Integrative, Interactive, and Iterative (III) Framework for developing an understanding of social-ecological-geomorphological systems. Using examples from Oregon and Ecuador, we show how the framework articulates interactions among physical, biological, and human processes, while allowing for sequential and multiple impact-feedback loops. The framework facilitates a conceptualization of complex human-environment interactions, as well as the identification of new questions linking geomorphological with social and ecological processes. Because it highlights policy as a key instrument to effecting feedbacks that could slow or reverse original impacts, it may also reveal novel policy solutions for responding to rapidly changing environments.
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Jeffrey Andresen
Michigan State University
Co-Authors: N/A
Title: Dynamic Interactions among People, Livestock, and Savanna Ecosystems under Climate Change: The East Africa Climate-Land Interaction Project in Savanna Ecosystems (EACLIPSE)
The savanna ecosystem in semi-arid East Africa has been undergoing important structural changes in plant species composition and water availability affecting people, livestock and wildlife. A large, multi-institutional research team is attempting to understand the causes of these changes in the savanna - what is the role of climate change, and what is the role of changes in land use and land management? The East Africa Climate-Land Interaction Project in Savanna Ecosystems (EACLIPSE) is addressing these issues within a comprehensive conceptual and methodological approach to modeling and statistical analysis of climate, land management, and ecosystem dynamics at two scales; the local where human decisions are made and ecosystem dynamics are most evident, and at the regional scale where the cumulative effect of human activity and ecosystem change may significantly impact climate. The recent severe drought in the region is highlighting the importance of identifying recent climate and land management trends and their relationship to the altered ecosystem, and the importance of providing future scenarios. This presentation will give an overview of the research questions, hypotheses and methodology of EACLIPSE, and the following presentations in this panel will describe initial research findings. Interaction between scales and temporal dynamics form the crux of the analysis of the coupled natural and human system.
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Nathan Moore
Zhejiang University, Michigan State University
Co-Authors: Dong-Yun Kim,
Jeffrey Andresen,
Sarah L Hession
Title: Historical and projected changes in East African meteorological drought
Climate change in East Africa is broadly expected to bring wetter and more variable rainfall, along with warmer temperatures. Along with these changes related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are shifts in land cover/land use change (LCLUC) that have more concentrated but important effects on rainfall and temperature. Here we present results from statistical analysis of historical data along with regional climate model projections at a high resolution. Significant changes in drought frequency and duration are examined via statistical testing procedures, along with trends in temperatures, using both gridded datasets and station data. We show analyses that indicate increased rainfall in higher-altitude areas, broad warming trends particularly in areas being converted to agriculture, and changes possibly consistent with GHG effects. We also show shifts in regional climate for the agriculturally important savanna areas around Mount Kenya and the Serengeti, particularly focusing on the shifts in seasonality. Factors that influence climate changes over time are examined using spatially explicit statistical techniques and a combination of rainfall station data with digital elevation models and geographically derived variables.
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Jiaguo Qi
Michigan State University
Co-Authors: Chuan Qin ,
Gopal Alagarswamy, Joseph Ogutu,
Mohamed Said,
Simon Mugatha,
Simon Mwansasu,
Pauline Noah,
Joseph Maitima,
Pius Z. Yanda
Title: Assessing Savanna Ecosystem Changes with Remote Sensing in East Africa
It is broadly expected that climate change and land use intensification are to continue in East Africa, which have been associated with savanna ecosystem changes. One of the key objectives, to be addressed by the EACLIPSE project, was to quantify the spatial pattern and the magnitude of savanna ecosystem degradation through the use of remotely sensed data along with in-situ measurements of key ecological indicators. In this study, both long-term time series of remote sensing observations from AVHRR and MODIS sensors, and snapshots of high resolution images from Landsat type and IKONOS sensors were used, in conjunction with field-collected data, to develop a set of ecological indicators of savanna ecosystems, including phenologies, ecosystem structure and plant species composition, and productivity. The results suggest that alterations of savanna vegetation in East Africa are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. The pattern appears to be related to a low frequency drivers imposed by a high frequency disturbance, implying that the long-term climate change may be the dominant driving force over large areas but highly modulated by local human activities such as land uses and management.
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Jennifer Olson
Michigan State University
Co-Authors: N/A
Title: People and Livestock in the Changing Landscape and Climate of the East African Savannas
The livelihoods and landscapes of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in Kenya and Tanzania have changed rapidly over the past 40 years. Livestock remain the economic and cultural foundation but where and what animals are herded, herd sizes, and who cares for the livestock are evolving. Meanwhile savanna forage is becoming less palatable and communities are facing an increasingly frequent threat from an old danger, drought. The focus of the EACLIPSE socioeconomic research is to learn how pastoralist land use and livelihoods are responding to recent climate and vegetation changes, and other drivers of change at the community and higher levels. It is identifying land use and pasture management changes that may be related to alterations of savanna ecosystem. Village level studies are increasing our understanding of the dynamics of vulnerability and resilience through documenting trends in livelihood adaptation and the advent of new coping strategies. A cross-site, comparative case study approach using qualitative and quantitative data is being implemented to identify changes in savanna land management through the lens of changing livelihoods and coping strategies. Analyses suggest a rapidly changing social geography of vulnerability to climatic variability that may be exacerbated by more frequent and more intense droughts and a trend toward the privatization of resource access.
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Gopalsamy Alagarswamy
Michigan State University
Co-Authors: Chuan Qin,
Jiaguo Qi,
Jeffrey A. Andresen,
Jennifer Olson,
Nathan Moore
Title:
Savanna Vegetation Changes as Influenced by Climate and Human Interventions in East Africa
East African climate in the future is projected to be wetter, more variable, and warmer. Ecologists and local herders in the region observed changes in ecosystem structure and reduction in forage productivity. As climate and land-use continue to change in the future, the savanna ecosystem will continue to respond. Ecosystem models, such as Century and Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) may be used to understand and quantitatively assess changes in vegetation and surface water as a function of climate and land use. Our objectives of this research at two study sites in Kenya and Tanzania are to: i) Quantify current trends in forage productivity and surface water availability as driven by management options and climate change, and ii) Validate the Century model using remotely sensed net primary productivity estimates. Simulated results suggested substantial spatial heterogeneity of forage yield in both study sites. Simulated yield was within the range of observed yield. Our analysis suggests that the use of remotely sensed net primary productivity is an effective way to calibrate and validate biogeochemical models, especially in geographical areas where ground-based observed data are either scarce or limited. Simulated results indicate that climate and land management may have significant impacts on savanna ecosystems, and more importantly, the dominant drivers of change tended to vary spatially and temporally. Specifically, in some areas, human management is the dominant cause of ecosystem changes while in others climate change plays a decisive role— for example, in the re-generation of native grass species after dry periods.
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